Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Bookies everywhere agree - it's Jenson

I took a look at the betting lines on this weekend's Australian F1 Grand Prix over at Sports Interaction, and was pretty amazed at what I saw:

  1. Button - 5:1
  2. Raikkonen - 6:1
  3. Alonso - 8:1
  4. Massa - 8:1
  5. Barrichello - 8:1
  6. Hamilton - 11:1
  7. Kubica - 13:1
  8. Heidfeld - 23:1
  9. Vettel - 26:1
  10. Trulli - 30:1
  11. Glock - 35:1
  12. Kovalainen - 41:1
  13. Rosberg - 41:1
  14. Webber - 51:1
  15. Nakajima - 71:1
  16. Piquet - 81:1
  17. Bourdais - 201:1
  18. Sutil - 251:1
  19. Fisichella - 251:1
Not sure why there's no odds on Buemi, but whatever. There's some fascinating insight here into what the public's perception is of how the weekend will go. After all, odds are generally calculated based upon bets received thus far, after an initial setting of odds by the bookies. Seems that Brawn's testing times have gotten everyone's attention, but what is remarkable is that Button is the one seen as the most likely to win, despite Barrichello's better record, and greater experience in a front-running team.

So there's some bargains to be had here and the one I've put a few dollars on is young Nico Rosberg. The German Swede posted the second fastest time at the Jerez tests, and third fastest at Barcelona, yet languishes at 41:1. An each way bet seemed like a no-brainer, since picking a winner in an F1 race (especially the first of the season) can be notoriously difficult. For a $5 stake ($10 each way) a win pays about $250, and 2nd or 3rd nets $45. Not bad at all.

Given BMW and Toyota's steady progress through the off-season, they all looked good too, bar Kubica, whose 8:1 odds can't justify the money. For anyone who wants to live closer to the edge, Webber and Nakajima are both wildcards at 51:1 and 71:1 respectively. The Williams in particular looks great.

Nothing like a flutter to make things more interesting!

1 comment:

Patrick said...

I'd be inclined to take a punt on Glock at 35/1 - that Toyota has looked quick on the long runs